Frequently Asked Questions about the Great Barrington Declaration (2023)

Lockout and collateral damage

How do you define lockdowns?

Lockdowns include various measures such as closed schools and universities for personal education, hybrid schools, closed or partially closed restaurants and other businesses, restrictions on sports and cultural events, emergency travel restrictions, working from home, canceled medical and dental visits, curfews, quarantine regulations, etc.

Lockdowns have a history of successagainst infectious agentsdiseaseklein?

Fundamental epidemiological theory suggests that lockdowns do not reduce total cases in the long run and have never led to the eradication of a disease in history. At best, lockdowns slow the rise in cases for a finite period of time and at great cost.

Do governments still use lockdowns?

Governments around the world, including many states in the US, continue to curtail normal activities and some are introducing additional lockdown restrictions. Many schools remain closed for regular in-person education, while many businesses, concert halls and churches are closed or allowed to operate at partial capacity. Lockdown remains a primary tool used by many governments to deal with the pandemic.

What are the effects of lockdowns on physical health?

There are many lockdowns. Medical care visits have plummeted, with people avoiding necessary medical care. This includes , , , , just to name a few. Many of the consequences of these missed visits are not reflected in this year's mortality figures, but it is something we will have to live with for a long time.

What are theintellectualhealth effects of lockdowns?

Humans have many needs, including the need for community andFornormal interactions between them. The possibility of serious suicide last June. Extending the lockdown indefinitely will multiply this damage.

What are the disadvantages of closing the scare they personally taught?

All children have the right to a high quality education. Adults have a moral obligation to do so, and it is morally wrong to ask children to shoulder a disproportionate burden of the costs of the epidemic. However, the policy of lockdown, and especially the closing of schools, guarantees that children .

Online learning is not a good substitute for face-to-face teaching. For normal development, children have a strong need to interact with other children, make friends and play with each other. Schools are also the main point of contact with care systems and provide shelter for underprivileged children. In addition, the risk of death from infection with COVID-19 for children is very low – lower than the risk of death from the seasonal flu. Schools are not closed because of the flu, and they shouldn't be because of COVID-19.

How Do lockdowns especially hurt herworking class?

Lock specific. As essential workers, or just to survive, they have to work and be exposed to COVID even if they are at high risk, building up population immunity that will ultimately protect everyone. This while low-risk students and young professionals, lawyers, bankers, journalists and scientists are protected from working from home. Less wealthy people also lack a financial safety net,Anfood shortages . Working-class children also drop out of school, as their parents are less likely to be able to afford teachers, colleges, or private schools. Poorer people also have less access to quality health care when they fall ill, with lockdowns tending to differentially reduce access to health care for the poor. Lockdowns therefore cause extra mortality and increase social inequality.

How Do lockdowns hurt herdeveloping world?

Lockdowns worldwide are wreaking havoc on both mental and physical health. estimates another 130 million poor people of inadequate treatment of tuberculosis due to . Vaccination campaigns in poor countries facing diseases such as have been suspended due to the lockdown. The list can be extended endlessly, with both short and long term implications.

Risk of COVID-19

How dangerous is the SARS-CoV-2 virus and COVID-19 disease?

It is important to distinguish between the risk of infection and the risk of death. Anyone can get infected, but there are more than onea thousandfold differencein the mortal danger between the eldest and the younger. For the elderly, COVID-19 is more dangerous than the annual flu. For the children, theRisk of death from COVID-19is less than for theannual flu.

How can you say that the risk of death for children is low now that schools are closed?

To answer this question scientifically, we need to look at the one major Western country that did not close schools during the height of the pandemic. This is Sweden, which kept kindergartens and schools open for children aged 1 to 15. Among the 1.8 million children in this age group, there wereexactly zero deaths from COVID-19during this period, and only a few hospitalizations. During this time, children with symptoms were told to stay home or be sent home if they came to school, but masks or physical distancing were not practiced at school.

Why are so many people afraid of COVID-19?

Unfortunately, public health reports about COVID-19 around the world have led to many misconceptions that have spread fear. While the elderly underestimate the risk of mortality from COVID-19, the young vastly overestimate the risk of mortality. Better public health messaging that doesn't spread unfounded fears based on anecdotes would help correct this situation.

Protection of the elderly and other risk groups

How do you separate the younger and older generations to ensure that the latter are not infected by the former?

It is not possible to do 100%, but since the strategies have succeeded "successfully" so farshifting the risk of infection from the professional class to the working classit is also possible to shift the risk of infection from older adults at high risk to younger adults at low risk. The latter will result in fewer deaths overall.

Do current age exclusion strategies not protect the elderly well?

Not the opposite. There were many unnecessary deaths, especially among theurban working class. Current lockdown policies have failed to protect the vulnerable. Specific examples of these failures are:

• Demanding that older "essential" workers and members of the working class who cannot afford not to work be placed in work situations where they may be exposed to the virus.
• Security failedresidents of nursing homesagainst exposure to the virus of employees, visitors and other residents.
• No provision for seniors living in multi-generational homes to be shielded if a family member is exposed to the virus.

How we protect the elderly in the nursing homeand other care arrangements?

A targeted protection strategy includes frequent testing of pre-immune nursing home staff, testing of visitors, and reduced staff turnover so that residents only interact with a limited number of staff. People with COVID-19 should not be sent to nursing homes and all new residents should be tested. Engagement of care home residents who have COVID-19 is also important.

How do we protect elderly people living at home?

During peak times, groceries and other necessities must be delivered to the home of the elderly. If you're seeing friends and family, it's best to do it outside. Tests should be available to family and friends who want to visit. Free N95 masks should be provided when potential exposure cannot be avoided.

How do we protect older adults who stay in work?

People in their 60s are somewhat at high risk, and many are still working. Anyone who can work from home should be able to do so. For example, teachers in their 60s could teach online classes or help their colleagues grade tests, essays, and homework. Those who cannot work from home should be funded to take 3 to 6 months off. In addition, disability laws should require employers to provide reasonable accommodations to protect high-risk COVID19 workers without losing their jobs.

How do we protect seniors in multi-generation homes?

The closure of universities and the resulting economic disruptionLockdowns have driven millions of young adultslive with older parents, increasing regular close intergenerational interactions. We know that the elderly who live with adults of working agehigher risk of COVID-19by elderly people living with other elderly people. Consistswithout further unnecessary riskif he also lives with children. This is the toughest challenge and family-specific solutions must be found. If working-age family members can work from home, they can self-isolate together. If this is not possible, the elderly relative may temporarily live with an elderly friend or sibling, with whom they can isolate together during the peak of transmission in the community. As a last resort, empty hotel rooms can be used for temporary accommodation.

What about the younger meDangerfactors;

People with comorbid risk factors should take the same precautions as older people without those risk factors.

For how longpersons at high riskbe careful and/ofself isolation?

When herd immunity is achieved, they can return to normal life with minimal risk. The time required depends on the strategy used. If lifelong containment measures are used to suppress the disease, it can take a year or two or three, making it very difficult for the elderly to protect themselves for that long. If targeted protection is used, it is likely to last only 3 to 6 months.

How can seniors know when to be extra careful?

It is important that public health authorities monitor the transmission of the disease at the local level and continuously communicate this to the public. High-risk individuals can make decisions and take precautions accordingly. Ideally, this is done using random population surveys. Hospitalization and mortality information should also be reviewed. Any monitoring system based on positive test results must take into account geographical and temporal differences in testing practices. This type of COVID-19 monitoring isperformed, for example, in New York.

This information should be communicated to the population in a nuanced manner that does not cause panic, but forms the basis for an accurate assessment of each individual's risk based on their age and comorbid conditions. The goal should be that vulnerable people do not underestimate their risk of being infected with COVID-19 and less vulnerable people do not overestimate their risk. Specific recommendations should accompany the information – perhaps including recommendations to avoid crowds, hand washing, social distancing and masks when their application to the situation is supported by sound science – that different people can take to reduce the risk of infection.

Herd immunity

What is Herd Immunity?

Herd immunity occurs when enough people are immune that most infected individuals cannot find new uninfected individuals to infect, leading to the end of the epidemic/pandemic. This means that the epidemic/pandemic will end before everyone is infected, although it will continue in an endemic form with low infection rates.

Do you believe in herd immunity?

Yes. Herd immunity is a scientifically proven phenomenon. Asking an epidemiologist if he believes in herd immunity is like asking a physicist if he believes in gravity. Those who deny herd immunity may also want to join flat earth society.

Met COVID-19,able toherd immunityto be evaded?

No. Sooner or later, herd immunity will be achieved through natural infection or through a combination of vaccinations and natural infection.

The Great Barrington Declaration supports a''oferdIimmunitykleinPressA''?

No. Those who make such claims in the media either (i) have not read the paper, (ii) do not understand the basics of infectious disease epidemiology, or (iii) are deliberately distorting the public health message for political purposes. For COVID-19, all strategies lead to herd immunity, making it silly to label any particular approach as a herd immunity strategy, just as it makes no sense for airline pilots to talk about a "gravity strategy" to keep an airplane safe to land. The Declaration advocates a strategy that minimizes mortality until herd immunity is achieved. This is done by minimizing the number of high-risk elderly individuals in the herd who become infected, while maximizing the number of uninfected individuals when herd immunity arrives.

Does the Great Barrington Declaration advocate "Let go of the virus"?

No, this is an incorrect characterization because it claims the opposite. The central principle of the statement isTargeted protection, where the elderly and other risk groups are better protected than before, to ensure they are not exposed to the virus. Nor does it encourage the deliberate exposure of anyone to the virus. Letting children and young adults live their lives without lockdown restrictions does not mean we let them die from the virus, any more than we blame politicians for letting people die in road accidents when a new road is built. In contrast, GBD significantly reduces collateral damage for less vulnerable people who are at greater risk of a lockdown than of a COVID-19 infection.

What percentage of the population must be immune to COVID-19 to have herd immunity?

That is impossible to know at the moment. No respectable epidemiologist will name a certain percentage that is necessary. It also varies by geography, with a higher percentage required in urban versus rural areas. It also depends on the strategy used. If people with more contacts are immune, such as traveling salesmen, taxi drivers, politicians or revelers, the rate is lower.

What are the current levels of immunity to COVID-19? Is it enough for herd immunity?

Current immunity levels vary by location. We know it's more common than the percentage of the population that has antibodies, but we don't know how much more. The time course of the epidemic in different regions of the world shows that population immunity plays an important role in controlling the spread.

In case people are intentionally infectedproduceherd immunity?

Nee.

Antibodies weaken after infection with COVID-19. Does this mean that natural immunity is weakened? How strong will vaccine-induced immunity be?

That the antibody response decreases over time following COVID infections was already known from much of the literature.

However, it is also true that the antibody response is not the only response our immune system has in response to an infection, and these other immune responses (e.g. the production of specific T cells) appear to be quite long lasting. You can see this in the fact that despite the estimated 750 million worldwide so far living with the virus after 10 months, we have only seen a few re-infections. If the virus is similar in immune response to other coronaviruses, recovery from infection will provide lasting protection against reinfection, either complete immunity or protection that makes severe reinfection less likely.

The immune response to vaccines is generally less strong than the natural immune response, but there are exceptions to this rule. Even after a vaccine is approved for use, we will have to wait a long time (probably at least ten months and more) to see how long it will last and the immunity provided by the COVID-19 vaccines will be completed. Targeted protection is the right way to contain the epidemic while we wait for the vaccine and beyond.

Standard public health practice

Is notTargeted protection too dangerousan experiment;

Nee.Targeted protectionbased on the risk-based strategies described in the variouspandemic preparedness plansthat various countries have developed over the past decades. Surprisingly, all countries except Sweden threw their pandemic plans out the window when this pandemic started.

How were past pandemics handled?

Indeed, the targeted protection strategy suggested by the Great Barrington Declaration is the typical way societies have dealt with epidemics in the past. It makes sense to let people who are at low risk of viral infection (but will suffer from lockdowns) live their lives as normal, while taking precautions when dealing with more vulnerable people makes sense – they are harmed by lockdowns and lifting of limitations helps them. At the same time, better targeted protection of the vulnerable is a moral imperative. Over time, population immunity will build among the non-vulnerable until vulnerable individuals are no longer at high risk for COVID-19 when participating in normal activities.

Was contact tracing, testing and isolation successful against infectious diseases?

Yes. Contact tracing is critical for many infectious diseases. They don't work for widespread illnesses like the annual flu, pre-vaccine measles, COVID-19 or, by definition, a pandemic.

It is not better to aNulCOVIDstrategy likeNew Zealand and South Korea?

In New Zealand and South Korea, which went into lockdown shortly after the arrival of the virus, a zero-covid-19 strategy is possible in the short term through a combination of lockdown and national quarantine. As the world is connected, countries that have successfully met a goal of zero COVID-19 will have to disconnect from physical exposure indefinitely – through international travel restrictions and mandatory quarantine. An important decision for them is whether to wait for a vaccine, which will arrive anywhere from 2 months to never, or whether to open the country when the infection returns. Because they have few domestic cases, they depend on other countries to develop and evaluate the effectiveness of the vaccines they need.

Most countries have never had this option, as the virus is already too widespread to effect a temporary national eradication. Pursuing a zero-COVID policy through lockdowns is then futile, leading to collateral damage with devastating health consequences for millions around the world.